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#1016591 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 AM 14.Sep.2020)
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

Earlier ASCAT data indciated peak winds of 33 kt in the northwestern
quadrant of the depression. Since then, convection has increased and
so have the various satellite intensity estimates. The initial
intensity is increased to 35 kt based on the ASCAT data, and
satellite estimates of T3.5/35 kt from TAFB and 38 kt from UW-CIMSS
SATCON. This makes Tropical Storm Teddy the earliest 19th named
storm, besting the unnamed tropical storm on October 4, 2005.

The initial motion estimate is 285/12 kt. A deep-layer subtropical
ridge positioned over the central Atlantic should keep Teddy moving
west-northwestward for the next couple of days. Thereafter, the
ridge is expected to shift northward and eastward, and the
strengthening cyclone is forecast to turn northwestward around the
western periphery of the ridge. The latest NHC track guidance is
general agreement on this developing track scenario, and the new
official forecast track is similar to the previous one and lies down
the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the consensus model
tracks.

Teddy will have several days to strengthen over very warm ocean
temperatures and within a light vertical wind shear regime. The
only hindrance to intensification will be intermittent intrusions
of dry mid-level air that will briefly disrupt the inner-core
convective structure. The NHC intensity forecast remains unchanged
and brings Teddy major hurricane strength by the middle of the week.
Some of the dynamical hurricane models continue to indicate that
Teddy could strengthen faster than that, but I can`t bear to make
that forecast at this time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 13.4N 40.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 13.8N 42.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 14.3N 44.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 15.0N 46.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 15.9N 48.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 16.9N 49.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 18.3N 50.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 21.0N 53.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 23.9N 55.6W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart