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#TD22 may be named Fri and be a major flood threat. #98L could TD soon. Wilfred then Alpha by end of the week possible.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 2 (Sally) , Major: 22 (Laura) Florida - Any: 708 (Michael) Major: 708 (Michael)
21.6N 55.4W
Wind: 130MPH
Pres: 947mb
Moving:
Nw at 12 mph
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22.9N 94.1W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Nne at 6 mph
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#1016592 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 AM 14.Sep.2020)
TCDAT2

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

The large, 35-40-mile-wide eye of Paulette is located over
northeastern Bermuda, and nearly the entire island is inside the
eye. The last Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter mission measured
peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 88 kt in the northeastern quadrant
where data from satellites and the Bermuda radar (the radar is still
functioning) indicate a large burst of deep convection has developed
and persisted in that part of the eyewall, likely bringing down much
of those winds to the surface. Using a standard 90-percent
adjustment factor yields a surface wind estimate near 80 kt, and
that is the intensity used for this advisory. The last reported
pressure by the aircraft was 973 mb, which has been confirmed by
surface observations from Bermuda.

The initial motion estimate is 345/10 kt. The track, intensity, and
wind radii forecasts remain essentially unchanged since all of the
latest NHC guidance appears to be tightly dialed in on Paulette`s
future. Additional strengthening appears likely after Paulette moves
away from Bermuda and accelerates northeastward over the North
Atlantic. Paulette is expected to be at or near major hurricane
strength on Tuesday. By the end of the forecast period, weakening is
forecast as Paulette interacts with a mid-latitude trough and begins
to lose its tropical characteristics. The NHC intensity forecast is
remains just above the intensity consensus, but is within the
tightly clustered guidance envelope at all times.

Confidence in the track forecast also remains high, and the latest
track guidance is tightly packed about the previous advisory track.
Paulette will move northward away from Bermuda today, followed by a
turn toward the northeast by tonight and on Tuesday. A slower
eastward to southeastward motion is expected by Friday when a large
mid-tropospheric cut-off low over the eastern Atlantic is forecast
to begin influencing Paulette`s track.

Key Messages:

1. The eye of Paulette will gradually move away from Bermuda
this morning, with hurricane conditions returning within a couple
of hours. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and
very heavy rainfall will likely continue into this afternoon.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 32.3N 64.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 33.9N 64.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 36.1N 62.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 38.4N 57.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 40.9N 51.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 43.4N 45.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 45.3N 40.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 45.5N 36.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 41.6N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart