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#TD22 may be named Fri and be a major flood threat. #98L could TD soon. Wilfred then Alpha by end of the week possible.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 2 (Sally) , Major: 22 (Laura) Florida - Any: 708 (Michael) Major: 708 (Michael)
21.6N 55.4W
Wind: 130MPH
Pres: 947mb
Moving:
Nw at 12 mph
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22.9N 94.1W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Nne at 6 mph
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11.9N 32.4W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1008mb
Moving:
Wnw at 17 mph
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#1016676 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:32 PM 14.Sep.2020)
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Special Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT SALLY HAS RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1130 AM CDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 87.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida Border to Indian Pass Florida
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1130 AM CDT (1630 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located
near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 87.0 West. Sally is moving
toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue today, followed by a decrease in forward
speed and a turn toward the northwest tonight and a northward turn
sometime on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally
will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, approach
southeastern Louisiana tonight, and make landfall in the hurricane
warning area on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Afterward, Sally is
expected to move slowly north-northeastward near the northern Gulf
Coast through Wednesday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Sally has rapidly strengthened. The maximum
sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...5-8 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft
AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL including Pensacola Bay,
Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area today, and are expected to begin
within the warning area later today.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it
approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated
amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from
the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the
middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In
addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to
isolated major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast move farther inland early Wednesday and track
into the Southeast with rainfall of 6 to 12 inches possible across
portions of inland southeast Mississippi and Alabama. Significant
flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to
moderate flooding on some rivers.

Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of eastern
Tennessee, northern Georgia and western Carolinas Thursday into
Friday. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across
this region.

Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of
1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may
produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing
minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this afternoon through
Tuesday over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi,
Alabama, and extreme southeastern Louisiana.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect areas from the
west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of
southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown