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TS Beta Strengthening, Hurricane Watches are now up from Port Aransas, TX to High Island, TX.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 3 (Sally) , Major: 23 (Laura) Florida - Any: 709 (Michael) Major: 709 (Michael)
24.9N 58.2W
Wind: 125MPH
Pres: 952mb
Moving:
Nw at 14 mph
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26.0N 92.5W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 996mb
Moving:
N at 8 mph
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13.1N 36.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Wnw at 17 mph
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40.9N 6.9W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Ne at 16 mph
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#1016717 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 14.Sep.2020)
TCDAT2

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

Overall, Paulette`s satellite presentation has improved during the
past several hours. In fact, a 1743 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass
showed a developing concentric eyewall cloud pattern with a fully
enclosed eyewall and a larger outer convective ring that was nearly
closed off. A blend of the UW-CIMSS objective T-number of 94 kt and
the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB yields
an initial intensity of 90 kt for this advisory.

Additional strengthening is expected as Paulette moves away from
Bermuda and accelerates northeastward over the North Atlantic.
Paulette should be at or near major hurricane strength within the
next 12-24 hours. On Wednesday, weakening is expected to begin
as the cyclone traverses a sharp gradient of decreasing (less
than 23C) oceanic temperatures. Around the same time, the
deterministic models are indicating that the cyclone will begin to
interact with a baroclinic boundary associated with major shortwave
trough. Paulette should begin to lose its tropical characteristics
at that time and complete an extratropical cyclone transition in 3
days. The ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS intensity models show the transition
completed in 48 hours, which is also a possibility.

The initial motion is estimated to be north-northeastward, or
030/13 kt. Paulette will begin accelerating northeastward by
Tuesday morning, and then turn east-northeastward with a further
increase in forward speed by Tuesday night. A slower southeastward
motion is forecast on Friday in response to a larger mid- to upper
tropospheric cut-off low approaching the eastern Atlantic. The NHC
forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is
very close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model and lies
down the middle of the tightly clustered various interpolated
deterministic aids.

The initial wind radii and subsequent forecast wind radii were
adjusted based on METOP A/B ASCAT 1232 UTC scatterometer passes.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 34.5N 63.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 36.1N 61.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 38.4N 57.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 40.8N 51.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 43.3N 44.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 45.4N 39.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 46.6N 35.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1800Z 44.3N 32.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 19/1800Z 39.1N 31.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts