Current Radar or Satellite Image - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

The 2021 Altantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2021. 2020 is officially over, but still a 30% chance area lingers.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 81 (Zeta) , Major: 144 (Laura) Florida - Any: 830 (Michael) Major: 830 (Michael)
Login to remove ads

Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#1016722 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 14.Sep.2020)

Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
800 PM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020

Vicky is severely sheared by strong upper-level westerly winds. The
initial intensity is held at 40 kt based on earlier ASCAT data, but
it is entirely possible the cyclone has weakened since this morning
and all recent intensity estimates are lower. The shear is the main
factor in Vicky`s forecast; it is expected to increase substantially
(up to 60 kt in 24 h in GFS-SHIPS diagnostics) and should cause the
cyclone to weaken. The NHC forecast now shows Vicky becoming a
remnant low in 36 hours, and it would not be surprising if it
happens sooner than that given the very hostile environment. After
Vicky loses all of its convection, the dynamical models suggest that
it will take a couple more days for the remnant low to spin down and
open into a trough.

Vicky`s movement has been somewhat erratic since it formed, but a
long-term motion estimate is 325/6 kt. A continued northwestward
motion is forecast for the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by a turn
toward the west as Vicky weakens and is increasingly steered by
low-level easterly winds. The NHC track forecast is based on the
TVCN and HCCA consensus aids and is practically on top of the
previous forecast.


INIT 14/2100Z 19.3N 29.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 20.1N 30.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 21.2N 31.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 22.0N 33.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1800Z 22.5N 35.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/0600Z 22.9N 38.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1800Z 23.0N 39.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1800Z 23.1N 43.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Zelinsky