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Struggling Beta and now former Alpha that formed but then poofed over Portugal begin the Greek Alphabeta with weaker storms, so far
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Sally) , Major: 27 (Laura) Florida - Any: 714 (Michael) Major: 714 (Michael)
49.7N 59.2W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 975mb
Nne at 31 mph
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30.5N 93.4W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1006mb
Ne at 13 mph
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#1016774 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 14.Sep.2020)

Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

Teddy is displaying some mixed signals this evening. On one hand,
satellite imagery shows an improving cloud pattern, with
increasing central convection and a large curved band on the
southern side of the circulation. The latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak
estimates have increased to 55 kt on this basis. Scatterometer
data, surprisingly, only shows 35-40 kt. The initial wind speed
remains 45 kt as a blend of that data, assuming the typical
undersampling from ASCAT, but there is a fair bit of uncertainty in
the current wind speed. Teddy should have several days in a low or
moderate shear environment over warm waters to intensify. All
guidance responds to this forcing by showing Teddy near major
hurricane strength in a few days, with the biggest disagreement
being how fast it gets there. The new forecast is similar to the
previous one, leaning toward the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance

Teddy is moving about the same as before, or 280/11 kt. No
substantial changes were made to the forecast track with the storm
in a seemingly stable steering current provided by a deep-layer
ridge over the central Atlantic. Teddy should turn
west-northwestward overnight and then northwestward on Wednesday
through the end of the forecast while it moves on the southwestern
flank of the ridge. Model guidance is in excellent agreement, with
only some minor speed differences. The NHC track prediction is
basically on top of the previous one and the consensus aids.


INIT 15/0300Z 13.2N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 13.8N 46.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 14.8N 48.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 15.9N 49.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 17.3N 51.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 18.5N 52.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 19.9N 54.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 22.6N 56.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 25.5N 60.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

Forecaster Blake