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The 2021 Altantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2021. 2020 is officially over, but still a 30% chance area lingers.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 85 (Zeta) , Major: 148 (Laura) Florida - Any: 835 (Michael) Major: 835 (Michael)
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#1016778 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 14.Sep.2020)

Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
200 AM CVT Tue Sep 15 2020

Vicky continues to be highly sheared due to strong upper-
tropospheric flow associated with a nearby trough, and its
associated deep convection is confined to a small cluster to the
northeast of the center. An ASCAT overpass from a few hours ago
showed an area of winds to just over 40 kt over the northern
semicircle and, based on sampling limitations, the current intensity
has been adjusted to 45 kt. The storm is not likely to maintain its
intensity, since the dynamical guidance indicates that the shear
over the cyclone will become even stronger during the next day or
so. Therefore steady weakening is anticipated, and Vicky is likely
to become a remnant low in about 36 hours. The official intensity
forecast is near or slightly below the latest model consensus.

Center fixes give a slow northwestward motion, or 315/6 kt. A
narrow and weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Vicky
should result in a northwestward to west-northwestward motion
into early Wednesday. Thereafter, when the system will have
probably have lost most of its deep convection, the shallow cyclone
is likely to move mainly westward following the low-level
environmental winds. The official track forecast is close to
previous one and about in the middle of the guidance suite.


INIT 15/0300Z 19.5N 29.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 20.5N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 21.4N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 22.0N 34.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0000Z 22.3N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/1200Z 22.5N 39.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0000Z 22.5N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z 22.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Pasch