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TS Beta Strengthening, Hurricane Watches are now up from Port Aransas, TX to High Island, TX.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 3 (Sally) , Major: 23 (Laura) Florida - Any: 709 (Michael) Major: 709 (Michael)
25.5N 58.5W
Wind: 125MPH
Pres: 952mb
Nw at 14 mph
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26.0N 92.5W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 996mb
N at 8 mph
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13.1N 36.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Wnw at 17 mph
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40.9N 6.9W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Ne at 16 mph
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#1016781 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 14.Sep.2020)

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

Paulette`s cloud pattern has degraded during the past few hours, and
recent microwave imagery suggests that the eyewall of the hurricane
was at least for a time open to the south. A larger mostly closed
ring of convection was also present, indicating that Paulette may be
going through an eyewall replacement cycle. Satellite-based current
intensity estimates range from 65 to 102 kt, but have generally
decreased since the last advisory. The intensity estimate remains 90
kt at this time, but there is a high degree of uncertainty in this

Assuming Paulette can maintain a well-defined inner core, either
through the completion of an eyewall replacement cycle or
redevelopment of convection in the southern eyewall, it should have
an opportunity to strengthen during the next 24 h. The intensity
guidance is not quite as bullish anymore, so the intensity forecast
has been lowered slightly, but it is still above the intensity
consensus through 36 h. Paulette could begin to lose tropical
characteristics around that time and rapid weakening is expected as
a result. The NHC forecast conservatively shows Paulette becoming
fully post-tropical in 72 h, but there are indications from the GFS
simulated satellite imagery that it could complete its transition

Paulette has turned northeastward and is accelerating, as
predicted, with an initial motion estimate of 35/15 kt. The system
will likely race generally east-northeastward for the next few
days. A slower motion and eventual turn southeastward or even
southward is expected near the end of the week when the cyclone
encounters a large cut-off low over the eastern Atlantic, however
it should be post-tropical by that time. The track guidance remains
in excellent overall agreement overall, and NHC forecast is based
heavily on TVCN and HCCA.

The wind radii analysis and forecast were updated based on data
from an ASCAT-A overpass at 0050 UTC.


INIT 15/0300Z 35.7N 62.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 37.4N 59.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 39.8N 54.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 42.3N 48.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 44.6N 41.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 46.0N 37.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 45.8N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0000Z 43.0N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/0000Z 39.0N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Forecaster Zelinsky