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The 2021 Altantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2021. 2020 is officially over, but still a 30% chance area lingers.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 81 (Zeta) , Major: 144 (Laura) Florida - Any: 830 (Michael) Major: 830 (Michael)
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#1016818 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 15.Sep.2020)

Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

Vicky remains sheared this morning with strong upper-level winds
causing any deep convection to be located northeast of the center.
The low-level circulation has also become distorted as well, with
new bursts of convection causing the mean circulation to re-form to
the north. The initial wind speed is kept 45 kt since the system
isn`t appreciably different than the last cycle. Models all weaken
the storm during the next couple of days due to rather potent
westerly shear (with 200-mb westerly winds as high as 70 kt
forecast across Vicky`s circulation). These extremely harsh
conditions should make the intensity prediction rather simple, and
Vicky is likely to decay into a remnant low within a day or two
and open up into a trough in a few days.

The re-formation of the center leads to an uncertain motion
estimate of 325/8 kt. The storm should turn west-northwestward
later today and westward on Wednesday as it becomes steered by the
low-level subtropical ridge. Little change was made to the
previous forecast, except for a small northward adjustment in the
first day or so of the prediction due to the initial position.


INIT 15/0900Z 20.3N 30.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 21.0N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 21.7N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 22.2N 35.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0600Z 22.5N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/1800Z 22.5N 38.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0600Z 22.5N 40.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Blake