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#TD22 may be named Fri and be a major flood threat. #98L could TD soon. Wilfred then Alpha by end of the week possible.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 2 (Sally) , Major: 22 (Laura) Florida - Any: 708 (Michael) Major: 708 (Michael)
21.6N 55.4W
Wind: 130MPH
Pres: 947mb
Moving:
Nw at 12 mph
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22.9N 94.1W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Nne at 6 mph
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#1016821 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 15.Sep.2020)
TCMAT4

HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020
0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD TO GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS AND
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING BETWEEN PORT FOURCHON AND THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE
FLORIDA
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE
* MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE NAVARRE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF NAVARRE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...
INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS AND METROPOLITAN
NEW ORLEANS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 88.1W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 110SE 150SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 88.1W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 88.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 29.2N 88.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 29.9N 88.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.6N 88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.4N 87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.2N 86.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.8N 84.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 33.2N 81.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 88.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART