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Struggling Beta and now former Alpha that formed but then poofed over Portugal begin the Greek Alphabeta with weaker storms, so far
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Sally) , Major: 27 (Laura) Florida - Any: 714 (Michael) Major: 714 (Michael)
51.0N 57.3W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 975mb
Moving:
Nne at 32 mph
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31.1N 91.8W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Ne at 12 mph
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#1016824 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 15.Sep.2020)
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

The tropical storm appears to have gotten better organized
overnight, with deeper convection near the center and an increase in
banding features. The initial wind speed is nudged upward to 50 kt,
a little lower than the subjective Dvorak estimates alone would
indicate since they have been running a little hot for this storm.
While there are no signs of a true inner core yet, the shear is
quite low at present, and Teddy should have several days in a low or
moderate shear environment over warm waters to strengthen. Thus,
the new forecast is raised from the previous one and is closest to a
blend of the Florida State Superensemble and the NOAA corrected-
consensus guidance. Teddy bears watching in the long range for
category 4 strength, but regardless of the details, all of the
guidance show it becoming a classical large and powerful September
hurricane.

The storm has turned west-northwestward tonight, or 295/10 kt.
Teddy remains in a well-defined steering current for the next
several days on the southwestern edge of the central Atlantic
ridge, causing a west-northwest to northwest track through the
end of the forecast. While the guidance is in very good agreement,
there`s been a rightward shift of almost all the aids, perhaps due
to more upper-level westerly flow than the last cycle. The NHC
track forecast is shifted eastward but lies on the western side of
the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 13.7N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 14.4N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 15.6N 48.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 18.2N 51.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 19.7N 52.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 21.0N 54.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 23.5N 56.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 26.5N 59.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake