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Struggling Beta and now former Alpha that formed but then poofed over Portugal begin the Greek Alphabeta with weaker storms, so far
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Sally) , Major: 27 (Laura) Florida - Any: 714 (Michael) Major: 714 (Michael)
49.7N 59.2W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 975mb
Nne at 31 mph
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30.5N 93.4W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1006mb
Ne at 13 mph
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#1016877 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 15.Sep.2020)

Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

Teddy`s structure is slowly improving. Visible and IR imagery
indicate that inner-core convection has increased, despite the
continued presence of dry slots. The latest Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB support the initial intensity of 55 kt.

Teddy is still heading west-northwestward for the moment with a
forward speed estimate of 11 kt. Teddy will likely turn
northwestward today and continue steadily moving northwestward along
the southwest periphery of a ridge over the central Atlantic for the
next several days. In fact, all available guidance indicates that
once it makes that northwestward turn, Teddy will barely deviate
from its heading or forward speed for the rest of the week. The
latest NHC track forecast is virtually identical to the previous
one. The model spread is smaller than usual and confidence in the
track forecast is high.

Teddy`s low shear and warm SST environment should be conducive for
further strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast is largely
unchanged. Some dry air in the environment could restrict Teddy`s
intensification rate, but is not expected to prevent Teddy from
becoming a hurricane later today or tonight. Continued strengthening
is expected thereafter and Teddy is forecast to become a major
hurricane within the next few days. On the whole, the intensity
guidance is a little lower at the longer-range times, so the NHC
forecast at days 4 and 5 is at the very top end of the guidance. I`d
rather see a more consistent signal from the models before making a
larger change to the forecast, especially given the impressive
depiction of Teddy in the global model forecasts at that time.

The 34 kt wind radii were expanded to the northwest of Teddy based
on data from an 1136 UTC ASCAT-A overpass.


INIT 15/1500Z 14.0N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 14.9N 48.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 16.1N 49.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 17.4N 50.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 18.9N 52.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 20.3N 53.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 21.5N 55.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 24.0N 57.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 27.1N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

Forecaster Zelinsky