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TS Beta Strengthening, Hurricane Watches are now up from Port Aransas, TX to High Island, TX.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 3 (Sally) , Major: 23 (Laura) Florida - Any: 709 (Michael) Major: 709 (Michael)
25.5N 58.5W
Wind: 125MPH
Pres: 952mb
Nw at 14 mph
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26.0N 92.5W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 996mb
N at 8 mph
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13.1N 36.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Wnw at 17 mph
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40.9N 6.9W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Ne at 16 mph
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#1016880 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 15.Sep.2020)

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

A 0533 UTC AMSR2 overpass on Paulette already reveals structural
changes associated with the approaching mid-latitude baroclinic
zone. The microwave image and GOES-16 mid- to upper-level water
vapor imagery show drier more stable air beginning to intrude into
the western portion of the cyclone. Additionally, Paulette`s
rain shield is more confined to the northern half of the system,
while drying out in the southern semi-circle. Only fragments
of the eyewall remain in that particular area. The initial
intensity is held at 90 kt for this advisory and is supported by
the subjective satellite intensity estimate T-numbers from TAFB and
SAB. Although Paulette is beginning to lose some of its tropical
characteristics, the cyclone still has a small window of opportunity
to strengthen while it continues moving over warm sea surface
temperatures during the next 12-18 hrs. Afterward, the water
temperature drop drastically to less than 20C while Paulette becomes
more involved with the aforementioned baroclinic system. As a
result, the cyclone should weaken rather rapidly and complete its
extratropical transition on Thursday, and this is based on an
agreement of the large-scale models and the statistical-dynamical

The aforementioned microwave pass indicated that the center of
circulation was a bit west-southwest of the previous position and
therefore the initial estimated motion is believed to be
northeastward, or 055/25 kt. Paulette is forecast to accelerate
further and turn east-northeastward later tonight and continuing
through Wednesday night, then slow down a bit on Thursday. Toward
the end of the week, the cyclone will likely turn east-
southeastward to south-southeastward as it moves within the
western peripheral flow of a mid- to upper tropospheric cut off low
to the east of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is just a little
faster than the previous one through 60 hours and lies closer to the
HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model and is also similar to the
GFEX ECMWF/FV3 simple consensus.


INIT 15/1500Z 38.3N 57.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 40.1N 53.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 42.7N 46.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 45.0N 40.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 46.2N 35.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 18/0000Z 45.6N 33.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/1200Z 43.9N 33.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/1200Z 39.9N 32.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/1200Z 37.0N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Forecaster Roberts