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#TD22 may be named Fri and be a major flood threat. #98L could TD soon. Wilfred then Alpha by end of the week possible.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 2 (Sally) , Major: 22 (Laura) Florida - Any: 708 (Michael) Major: 708 (Michael)
21.6N 55.4W
Wind: 130MPH
Pres: 947mb
Moving:
Nw at 12 mph
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22.9N 94.1W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Nne at 6 mph
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#1016932 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 15.Sep.2020)
TCDAT4

Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

Sally has been inching its way toward the north-central Gulf Coast
today. The overall structure of the storm has remained about the
same during the day with a large ragged eye in apparent in radar
imagery. A NOAA P-3 aircraft that has been sampling the storm
since late this morning has reported peak flight-level winds of
76 kt, and NWS Doppler radar has shown velocities of 75-80 kt at
around 7000 ft. The intensity was reduced to 70 kt on the 1800 UTC
intermediate advisory and remains at that value for this advisory.

Radar and aircraft fixes show that Sally has been moving very slowly
toward the north or 350/2 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains
unchanged from the previous advisory. Sally is currently located
within an area of weak steering flow between a couple of mid-level
ridges to its east and west. A weak mid-level trough over the
south-central United States is forecast to slide eastward over the
next few days, which should cause Sally to turn north-northeastward
and then northeastward over the next 24-36 hours. Sally's forward
speed is expected to remain quite slow over the next 24-48 hours,
but the guidance has trended slightly faster after that time. The
slow forward speed is likely to result in a historical rainfall
event for the north-central Gulf Coast. It may sound like a broken
record, but the track guidance has again shifted eastward during the
first 24-36 hours, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
accordingly. Since Sally has a large wind field, and storm surge
and rainfall hazards extend far from the eye, users should not focus
on the exact forecast track or specific location and timing of
landfall as strong winds and bands of heavy rainfall are already
affecting the Gulf Coast and will continue to do so for quite some
time.

The combination of upwelling and moderate westerly shear is likely
to result in little change in strength prior to Sally moving
onshore. Once the center of the hurricane moves onshore, rapid
weakening is expected and the global models indicate that the
circulation will becoming elongated along a frontal boundary in 3
to 4 days.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Historic life-threatening flash flooding due to rainfall is
likely through Wednesday along and just inland of the coast from the
Florida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola River to far southeastern
Mississippi. Widespread moderate to major river flooding is
forecast along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast.
Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to
moderate river flooding, is likely across inland portions of
Mississippi and Alabama, and into Georgia and the western Carolinas
this week.

2. Life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the
coastline from Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle, including
Mobile Bay.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected this evening and overnight
within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi
and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 29.5N 88.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 29.9N 88.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 30.6N 87.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/0600Z 31.5N 86.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1800Z 32.5N 85.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/0600Z 33.1N 83.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/1800Z 33.5N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown