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TS Beta Strengthening, Hurricane Watches are now up from Port Aransas, TX to High Island, TX.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 3 (Sally) , Major: 23 (Laura) Florida - Any: 709 (Michael) Major: 709 (Michael)
25.5N 58.5W
Wind: 125MPH
Pres: 952mb
Moving:
Nw at 14 mph
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26.5N 92.4W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 995mb
Moving:
N at 8 mph
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13.1N 36.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Wnw at 17 mph
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40.9N 6.9W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Ne at 16 mph
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#1016940 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 15.Sep.2020)
TCDAT2

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

Another fortuitous AMSR2 microwave pass over the cyclone showed the
outer concentric ring open over the south semicircle and a more
noticeable vertical tilt. Furthermore, the cloud tops associated
with the deep convection in the north quadrant have warmed during
the past several hours. Consequently, the initial intensity is
lowered to 85 kt and is in best agreement with the subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates.

Paulette continues to lose its tropical characteristics as it
mingles with the rapidly approaching baroclinic zone from the
northwest. In fact, earlier successive METOP A and B scatterometer
passes on Paulette revealed that the northwest quadrant 34-kt wind
radii had nearly doubled in size due to the aforementioned invading
frontal zone moving out of the Canadian Maritimes. The sea surface
temperatures quickly decrease to less than 20C within 24 hours as
Paulette accelerates east-northeastward. As a result, the cyclone
should weaken rather quickly and complete its extratropical
transition on Thursday, as indicated in the global models and the
statistical-dynamical guidance.

Paulette is moving east-northeastward, or 060/26 kt, and this motion
should continue with a further increase in forward speed through
Thursday. Toward the end of the week, the cyclone will likely turn
south-southeastward to southward as it moves within the western
peripheral flow of a mid- to upper tropospheric cut off low to the
east of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is basically an update
of the previous advisory and is based on the various consensus
guidance.

The initial wind radii and subsequent forecast wind radii were
adjusted based on METOP A/B ASCAT 1110 UTC and 1424 UTC
scatterometer passes.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 39.5N 55.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 41.4N 50.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 44.0N 42.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 45.8N 36.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/1800Z 45.8N 33.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 18/0600Z 43.9N 32.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/1800Z 41.2N 32.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/1800Z 38.0N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/1800Z 34.5N 32.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts