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TS Beta Strengthening, Hurricane Watches are now up from Port Aransas, TX to High Island, TX.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 3 (Sally) , Major: 23 (Laura) Florida - Any: 709 (Michael) Major: 709 (Michael)
24.9N 58.2W
Wind: 125MPH
Pres: 952mb
Moving:
Nw at 14 mph
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26.0N 92.5W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 996mb
Moving:
N at 8 mph
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13.1N 36.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Wnw at 17 mph
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40.9N 6.9W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Ne at 16 mph
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#1016995 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 15.Sep.2020)
TCDAT2

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

Paulette is gradually losing tropical characteristics.
Geostationary satellite and microwave data indicate that the
low-level center is located near the southern edge of the main area
of deep convection and that the hurricane is starting to get
tangled up with a nearby baroclinic zone. A recent ASCAT-B
overpass showed maximum winds in the 75-80 kt range in the
southwestern quadrant. It is quite impressive to see such high
values from that instrument given that ASCAT usually can`t resolve
the maximum winds in hurricanes. The initial intensity is
therefore held at 85 kt.

Since Paulette is forecast to move over much cooler waters and into
an environment of strong wind shear and dry air, weakening is
expected. Paulette is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone
in about 24 hours when it will likely merge with the nearby front
and move over SSTs of about 20 C. There is some chance that
Paulette could regain tropical or subtropical characteristics
toward the end of the forecast period when it is expected to move
back over warmer waters. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an
update of the previous one, which is a blend of the intensity
consensus models and the GFS.

The hurricane continues to race east-northeastward at about 24 kt.
A continued fast east-northeastward motion within the mid-latitude
westerlies is expected for another day or so. After that,
Post-tropical Paulette is expected to slow down and turn
southeastward and then southward as it moves on the west side of a
deep-layer low pressure system. The new track forecast is similar
to the previous one and lies between the HCCA and TVCA consensus
models.

Paulette is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seas
estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center near the core of the
hurricane are 52 feet. Swells from the hurricane have spread far
away from the center and continue to affect Atlantic Canada,
Bermuda, and portions of the U.S. east coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 40.7N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 42.6N 47.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 44.7N 40.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 17/1200Z 45.7N 36.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/0000Z 44.8N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 18/1200Z 42.4N 33.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/0000Z 40.1N 33.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/0000Z 36.8N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/0000Z 34.4N 34.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi