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#1016996 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 15.Sep.2020)
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

Vicky provided a surprise this evening, with scatterometer data
showing a solid 45-kt in the northwestern quadrant of the storm.
You would never guess it from the satellite images, which show a
very sheared system that would at best support an 30-35 kt
intensity, as indicated by the latest Dvorak estimates. The initial
wind speed is set to 45 kt, higher than the last time but not really
a true strengthening since conventional satellite data was a bit
deceptive earlier. Despite Vicky holding its own, models are still
showing the strong shear persisting, which should eventually cause
weakening. The cyclone is likely to last longer than previously
anticipated though with some upper-level divergence counteracting
the effects of the shear, but Vicky is forecast gradually lose
strength and decay in a remnant low in a couple of days, similar to
the consensus guidance.

The storm continues to more west-northwestward, a little to the
left of previous, at 290/10. Vicky should gradually turn westward
tomorrow and west-southwestward later this week as it becomes a
shallower cyclone. The new forecast is quite similar to the
previous one, leaning on the northern side of the well-clustered
guidance envelope since Vicky is persisting as a deeper cyclone for
the moment. The only small change is to add a 72-hour forecast
point as the remnants could linger for a while longer.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 21.6N 33.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 22.0N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 22.3N 36.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 22.4N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 22.3N 39.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1200Z 22.0N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z 21.5N 43.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake