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The 2021 Altantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2021. 2020 is officially over, but still a 30% chance area lingers.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 85 (Zeta) , Major: 148 (Laura) Florida - Any: 835 (Michael) Major: 835 (Michael)
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#1017170 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 16.Sep.2020)

Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

Hostile vertical shear of 50 to 60 kt has finally taken a toll on
Vicky. A 1227 UTC ASCAT-B overpass showed peak winds of 35 kt north
of the center, and that is the basis for the advisory intensity. The
strong shear is expected to continue while Vicky moves over marginal
26-27C SSTs, so additional weakening is forecast. Vicky should
become a tropical depression in around 24 hours before weakening to
a remnant low in about 2 days, with dissipation expected by day 3.
However, the timing of when organized deep convection will finally
cease is difficult to determine, so its is possible Vicky could
weaken faster than indicated here or hang on a bit longer.

The initial motion estimate is more westward, or 270/08. Vicky
should continue moving westward for the next day or two before
turning west-southwestward in the low-level flow. The new NHC track
forecast is south of the previous one and is close to the new
multi-model consensus aids.

The ASCAT data were also used to modify the initial 34-kt wind


INIT 16/1500Z 21.5N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 21.6N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 21.7N 37.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 21.5N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 21.0N 41.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0000Z 20.5N 42.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Brennan