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Struggling Beta and now former Alpha that formed but then poofed over Portugal begin the Greek Alphabeta with weaker storms, so far
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Sally) , Major: 27 (Laura) Florida - Any: 714 (Michael) Major: 714 (Michael)
49.7N 59.2W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 975mb
Moving:
Nne at 31 mph
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30.5N 93.4W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1006mb
Moving:
Ne at 13 mph
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#1017255 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 16.Sep.2020)
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

Recent satellite imagery is suggesting that Teddy is undergoing some
westerly vertical wind shear, as indicated by outflow being more
limited in the western portion of the circulation. The latest
UW-CIMSS shear analysis suggests the magnitude of this shear could
be about 10-15 kt, which could help to explain the lack of increase
in organization of the cyclone today. The most recent Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates provided CI values of 4.5-5.0,
indicating that the initial intensity is still around 85 kt.

The environmental conditions are not forecast to change much for
Teddy over the next couple of days. The cyclone is forecast to move
over warm waters within a somewhat dry atmospheric environment,
while moderate shear is expected to continue due to an upper trough
to its northwest. Based on these only somewhat favorable conditions
for strengthening, along with what we have witnessed with the lack
of intensification today, the NHC intensity forecast over the next
few days is being lowered. Beyond day 3, there is evidence to
suggest that Teddy may move over some cooler waters due to upwelling
caused by Paulette. And, by day 4 global models are forecasting a
further increase in vertical wind shear. These two factors should
cause the cyclone to weaken late in the forecast period. This
updated intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP
corrected consensus, HCCA.

Teddy is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. This motion is
forecast to continue for the next few days, as the cyclone is
steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. Late in the
forecast period, the portion of the ridge north of Teddy is expected
to erode as a mid-latitude trough digs across the northeastern
United States. This evolution should cause the cyclone to turn
north-northwest and possibly north by day 5. The track guidance is
tightly clustered through day 3, but increases quite a bit after
that time, likely due to how the models are handling the approaching
trough. The latest GFS delays a turn and shows a more westerly
track, with the cyclone southwest of Bermuda by day 5, while the
rest of the global models turn the system north sooner and take the
system just east of Bermuda. The NHC track forecast is close to the
previous one and is near the various multi-model track consensus
aids. On the forecast track, Teddy could make a close to approach to
Bermuda in about 5 days. However, based on the model spread at that
time frame and average track error of about 200 n mi at 120 h, it
is certainly too soon to know what impacts Teddy may have on the
island.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 17.5N 50.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 18.6N 52.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 20.0N 53.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 21.5N 54.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 23.0N 56.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 24.8N 58.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 26.5N 60.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 29.5N 63.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 33.3N 64.6W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto