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#1017592 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 AM 18.Sep.2020)
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

Satellite images indicate that the broad area of low pressure over
the eastern Atlantic has become better-defined this morning. In
addition, scatterometer data also show a closed circulation, albeit
with some rain contamination causing some noise near the center.
The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt, in accordance with
scatterometer data from last night (this morning`s data missed the
eastern side of the storm). Thus Wilfred has formed, continuing
the record-setting pace of the 2020 hurricane season since it is
the earliest 21st named storm on record, about 3 weeks earlier
than Vince of 2005.

Further intensification is possible during the next day or two
before a large upper-level trough is forecast to drop into the
path of the storm and stay there for at least a few days. That
should promote weakening due to a substantial increase in shear, and
most of the global models show this tropical cyclone opening up
into a trough by day 5. The official forecast follows this
scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the
consensus and corrected-consensus aids.

Wilfred is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt. The storm
is forecast to continue this motion for the next several days,
owing to steering from the low- to middle-level subtropical ridge.
The guidance is in fair agreement, and the official forecast is
near or west of the consensus at all times, leaning in the
direction of the HCCA corrected-consensus. I should mention that
if Wilfred intensifies more than expected, it would probably move a
bit right of the forecast track for a while due to the expected
southwesterly flow at higher levels, before eventually turning back
west-northwestward.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 11.9N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 12.6N 34.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 13.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 14.5N 40.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 15.6N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 16.7N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 17.3N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 18.0N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake