Current Radar or Satellite Image - Central Florida Hurricane Center - 25 Years Tracking StormsHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

The 2021 Altantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2021. 2020 is officially over, but still a 30% chance area lingers.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 34 (Zeta) , Major: 97 (Laura) Florida - Any: 783 (Michael) Major: 783 (Michael)
Login to remove ads

Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#1017640 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 18.Sep.2020)

Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020
500 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

There haven`t been a lot of changes with Wilfred today, with the
northern side of the circulation looking rather dry while the
center remains close to a burst of convection. The initial wind
speed is kept 35 kt, closest to the TAFB classification. Wilfred
could strengthen some during the next day or so before increasing
upper-level westerlies winds likely begin by Sunday. A gradual
weakening is expected into early next week, though the model
guidance is in worse agreement than the last advisory due to the
positioning of an upper-level low. The forecast continues to
show the storm ending up on the convergent side of the low and
dissipating, close to the previous one.

Wilfred is moving west-northwestward at about 16 kt, after
accounting for a re-positioning westward. Most of the guidance
agrees on a scenario that maintains this track for the next few
days, with a turn toward the west as the cyclones dissipates. The
new forecast is closest to the GFS-based guidance. Similar to the
intensity forecast, however, there are some models that suggest
Wilfred could slow down and turn to the right in a couple of days if
it is stronger than anticipated.


INIT 18/2100Z 12.5N 34.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 13.2N 36.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 14.3N 39.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 15.4N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 16.4N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 17.1N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 17.5N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Blake