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The 2021 Altantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2021. 2020 is officially over, but still a 30% chance area lingers.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 35 (Zeta) , Major: 97 (Laura) Florida - Any: 784 (Michael) Major: 784 (Michael)
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#1017884 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 19.Sep.2020)

Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

Microwave data since the previous advisory indicates that the
center of Wilfred is located near the southwestern edge of the deep
convection. The displacement of the center from the convection
is the result of moderate westerly vertical wind shear. The
initial intensity remains 35 kt, and is based on an ASCAT-B
overpass from around 0000 UTC that revealed peak winds of 30-35 kt.

Wilfred is headed toward an area of increasing westerly wind shear,
and a drier mid-level environment. These negative factors should
lead to weakening in 24 to 48 h, and the global models dissipate
the cyclone within the next few days. The official forecast
follows suit, but given the small size of the cyclone it could
weaken and dissipate sooner than indicated below.

The initial motion estimate is 295/14, a little faster than before.
Wilfred is forecast to remain on a west-northwestward heading
through Sunday, but should turn westward within the low-level flow
by Sunday night or Monday. The latest NHC track forecast is once
again similar to the previous advisory and near the middle of the
guidance envelope.


INIT 20/0300Z 14.5N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 15.3N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 15.8N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 16.2N 47.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 16.4N 49.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Brown