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| #1021786 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 19.Oct.2020) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 Although the center of the system has become exposed over the past few hours, it is very well defined. In addition, the convective banding over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation has continued to improve. Based on a Dvorak classification of T2.5 from TAFB, the system is upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm. ASCAT-A has missed the circulation, but ASCAT-B caught the far eastern edge of the wind field and indicates winds of 30-35 kt in that area. The tropical storm is located within an environment of moderate southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear and over warm waters. These conditions should allow for gradual strengthening over the next day or so. By 48 hours, decreasing vertical wind shear could allow for more significant intensification, and there is increasing spread in the intensity guidance by that time. The statistical guidance is at the upper-end of the envelope while the regional hurricane models are lower. The NHC forecast is a bit on the conservative side for now, and lies just above the intensity consensus aids. Given the expected decrease in shear, some upward adjustment in the intensity forecast may be required in subsequent advisories. Epsilon is meandering over the central Atlantic as it is located within an area of weak steering currents near the base of a mid- to upper-level trough that extends southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic. A mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the western and central Atlantic to the north of the system by midweek, and this ridge should slide eastward later in the week. These changes in the synoptic pattern should cause Epsilon to begin moving west-northwestward to northwestward at a faster rate of speed by midweek. The models are again in fairly good agreement and the NHC track is near the center of the guidance envelope. Key Message: 1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon`s track and intensity near the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall, and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the progress of Epsilon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 25.6N 55.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 25.8N 55.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 26.4N 55.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 27.6N 56.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 28.3N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 29.1N 59.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 30.2N 60.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 32.3N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 34.5N 63.3W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown |
