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| #1022044 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 21.Oct.2020) TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 Epsilon is maintaining a healthy satellite appearance this morning after its rapid intensification last night. A 10-to-15 n mi-wide eye is evident in visible satellite imagery this morning, and 0815Z GMI 89 GHz microwave imagery shows a closed eyewall with deep convection surrounding the well-defined center. Objective satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS and subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB support raising the initial intensity to 80 kt with this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the area this afternoon for a better estimate. Epsilon took a brief westward jog this morning, and its initial motion is now estimated at 285/10 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north-northeast of the cyclone should continue steering Epsilon toward the west-northwest today with a slightly slower forward speed. Then, another ridge is forecast to build to the east of the hurricane, which should turn the cyclone toward the northwest on Thursday and northward on Friday. Epsilon is forecast to pass east of Bermuda and make its closest approach to the island Thursday afternoon or evening. As the hurricane gains latitude and becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, the cyclone will likely accelerate northeastward across the central Atlantic this weekend. Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast, mainly beyond 48 h when more spread is noted in the track guidance. Weak vertical wind shear and waters with marginal oceanic heat content could allow for some additional modest strengthening today, and the NHC intensity forecast now brings Epsilon to a 85-kt hurricane in 12 h. Then, Epsilon`s intensity is likely to plateau as environmental conditions gradually become less conducive for additional development. Beyond 36-48 h, increasing southerly deep-layer shear and cooler waters are forecast to induce a slow weakening trend, although the tropical-storm-force wind field should expand as Epsilon moves into the mid-latitudes and begins its extratropical transition. The forecast calls for Epsilon to be extratropical by 120 h, but it is expected to remain a powerful cyclone as it moves across the northern Atlantic at the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning later today and continuing intermittently through late Thursday, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Bermuda. 2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 29.1N 59.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 29.6N 60.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 30.9N 60.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 32.3N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 33.7N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 35.0N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 36.6N 60.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 42.0N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 49.5N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake |
