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| #1022350 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 23.Oct.2020) TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 The satellite structure of Epsilon has evolved over the last 6 hours, with visible imagery suggesting concentric eyewalls, and recent 89 GHz GMI and AMSR2 microwave imagery indicating the secondary eyewall has nearly closed off around the smaller core. The current intensity of Epsilon was kept at 75 kt for this advisory, close to the satellite estimates, although the 50-kt wind field has expanded significantly in the northern semicircle as indicated by recent scatterometer data. Epsilon has maintained its northward heading with a bit faster forward motion (360/10 kt). The track reasoning remains the same, where the cyclone will be steered to the north around the westward extent of a deep-layer ridge and then will move quite quickly to the northeast as it encounters stronger deep-layer westerly flow ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough. This same mid-latitude trough will interact with Epsilon after 60 h and contribute to the formation of a large and powerful baroclinic cyclone by the end of the forecast period. No significant changes were made to the track forecast. Vertical wind shear is expected to remain low over the next two days and intensity changes will likely be influenced by inner core fluctuations. The intensity guidance does suggest some modest intensification is possible in the short-term as Epsilon moves over a warm eddy in the Gulf Stream, assuming the current secondary eyewall consolidates. Based on this reasoning, the official intensity forecast was nudged slightly upward for the first 24 h. Afterwards, slow weakening is expected but Epsilons 34- and 50-kt wind field should continue to expand to the south while it undergoes extratropical transition, completing the process by early Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 35.5N 61.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 37.0N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 38.9N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 41.9N 53.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 45.6N 45.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 50.0N 34.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 26/1800Z 54.0N 24.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake |
