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#1050971 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 30.Jun.2021)
TCDAT5

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that the convection associated with the
low pressure area over the central tropical Atlantic is becoming
better organized. However, earlier scatterometer data showed that
the circulation was elongated and not well defined. Since the
system is about 48 h away from the Lesser Antilles and is expected
to become a tropical storm before reaching the islands, advisories
are being initiated at this time on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five.
The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the scatterometer
data and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion is 285/18. The disturbance is currently on the
south side of a strong subtropical ridge, and for the next 72 h the
system should move rapidly west-northwestward. Indeed, the forward
speed may exceed 25 kt as the system moves through the Lesser
Antilles. There is excellent agreement in the guidance on this
part of the forecast track. After 72 h, the system is expected to
approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough
over the eastern United States. The should cause the system to slow
its forward speed and turn more northwestward. The track guidance
become more diverse during this time in regards to how far north
the system will turn, and this part of the NHC forecast track is
most similar to the GFS and UKMET forecasts. Note that the track
forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system does not yet
have a well-defined center.

The disturbance is currently in a favorable upper-level wind
pattern. However, most Atlantic systems in this area moving near 25
kt have trouble strengthening, and there are indications that the
fast forward speed may produce some westerly shear. Thus, the NHC
intensity forecast for the first 72 h is near the lower edge of the
intensity guidance. After 72 h, the intensity forecast becomes
highly uncertain due to possible land interaction and differences in
the model forecasts of the upper-level winds. This portion of the
NHC intensity forecast maintains a constant 50-kt intensity due to
the level of uncertainty.

Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching
the Lesser Antilles and tropical storm conditions are possible
beginning Friday in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward
Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall will move quickly across the Windward and southern
Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Isolated flash
flooding and mudslides are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos
and the southeastern Bahamas through early next week, although the
forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system does not have
a well-defined center. Interests in these areas should monitor the
system`s progress and updates to the forecast.

4. Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for
this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts
could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 9.6N 43.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 01/0600Z 10.2N 46.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 01/1800Z 11.1N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 12.4N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 13.8N 61.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 15.4N 66.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 17.0N 70.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 20.0N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 05/1800Z 22.5N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven