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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 294 (Nicholas) , Major: 309 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1363 (Michael) Major: 1363 (Michael)
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#1058792 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 26.Aug.2021)
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ida Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Ida this
evening and found maximum flight-level winds of 47 kt at 2500 ft.
This data along with numerous unflagged 35-kt SFMR winds supported
raising the intensity to 35 kt earlier this evening. Since the
aircraft departed Ida, there has been generally little change in the
storm's structure, so the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. Ida
is an asymmetric tropical storm with most of the deep convection and
stronger winds confined to the eastern half of the circulation.
Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating
Ida Friday morning.

The storm has been wobbling around, but smoothing through the recent
erratic motion yields an initial motion estimate of 320/10 kt. A
mid-level ridge centered off the southeast U.S. coast is expected to
shift westward on Friday and over the weekend. This feature should
keep Ida moving in a general northwestward motion for the next 2 or
3 days, taking the core of the system over western Cuba Friday
afternoon or evening and then across the southern and central Gulf
of Mexico this weekend. Although there is some timing differences
in the models, they are in fairly good agreement that Ida will make
landfall in Louisiana late Sunday or early Monday. The GFS and ECMWF
ensemble members basically span a similar region and are most
concentrated across the state of Louisiana. Users are reminded to
not focus on the exact forecast track as impacts will extend far
from the center and the average 72-hour track error is around 120
miles.

There is some southwesterly vertical wind shear affecting Ida at the
moment, which is the likely part of the reason the cloud pattern and
wind field are asymmetric. However, the global model show the
upper-level pattern becoming quite favorable late Friday and through
the weekend. These more conducive winds aloft combined with very
warm SSTs and abundant moisture is likely to result in steady or
rapid intensification until Ida makes landfall in the U.S. The
intensity guidance unanimously show Ida becoming a hurricane, but
there is notable spread in how strong the system will become. Given
the expected favorable environmental conditions for the storm, the
NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the model guidance,
in best agreement with the regional hurricane models. It is also
worth noting that even though the global models are not particularly
accurate in predicting tropical cyclone winds, the GFS and ECMWF
show the minimum pressure falling more than 35 mb from the current
conditions. Based on all of this information, there is
higher-than-normal confidence that a significant hurricane will be
approaching the Gulf coast late in the weekend.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman
Islands tonight and in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth Friday, where a dangerous storm surge is also possible in
areas of onshore flow. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding
and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and
western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge
inundation along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama,
where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Interests in these areas
should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. There is an increasing risk of dangerous hurricane-force winds
beginning Sunday along the portions of the coasts of Louisiana and
Mississippi, including metropolitan New Orleans, where a Hurricane
Watch is in effect.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday into Monday along
the central Gulf coast resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and
riverine flooding. Heavy rainfall and flooding impacts are likely
along the central Gulf Coast Sunday into Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 18.6N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 19.9N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 21.8N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR CUBA
36H 28/1200Z 23.8N 85.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 25.6N 88.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 27.3N 89.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 29.0N 90.6W 95 KT 110 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 31/0000Z 32.0N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0000Z 33.9N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi