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Very quiet now as shear and dry Saharan air cover much of the Atlantic
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 294 (Nicholas) , Major: 309 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1363 (Michael) Major: 1363 (Michael)
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#1059399 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 29.Aug.2021)
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

Although Ida has been inland over southeastern Louisiana for several
hours, it is still a very well organized hurricane. Doppler radar
images indicate that the hurricane continues to have a well-defined
eye, though the eyewall has become a bit ragged on the southwest
side. Beyond the inner core, rain bands remain well established,
especially on the system's east side. Earlier this evening, there
were reports of extreme wind gusts over 120 kt along the coast of
southeastern Louisiana. Based on Doppler radar velocity data over
the past hour or two, the initial intensity is estimated to be 90
kt.

As Ida continues inland, rapid weakening is expected due to a
combination of land interaction and an increase in wind shear.
However, damaging winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread
further inland over southeastern Louisiana and southwestern
Mississippi through Monday morning. To account for this, the gust
factor in the Forecast/Advisory has been adjusted accordingly. Ida
is likely to weaken to a tropical storm by Monday morning and a
tropical depression by Monday night. Some slight restrengthening as
an extratropical storm is possible when Ida moves over the western
Atlantic in 4 days or so. In addition, heavy rains will spread
northward and then northeastward along the forecast track.

Ida is expected to turn northward by early Monday as it moves in the
flow on the western side of a subtropical ridge. A faster motion to
the northeast is expected by Tuesday as a mid- to upper-level trough
approaches the system, with that motion continuing through much of
the remainder of the week. The NHC track forecast is a little to
the south or right of the previous one to come into better agreement
with the latest models.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge inundation will continue through
tonight along portions of the coast between Burns Point, Louisiana,
to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside
of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible
where local inundation values may be higher.

2. Wind damage will occur near the core of Ida as it continues
inland over southeastern Louisiana during the next few hours.
Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the
track of Ida's center into southwestern Mississippi through early
Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and
power outages.

3. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall tonight through
Monday across southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and
southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable to life-threatening
flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding impacts.
As Ida moves farther inland, considerable flooding impacts are
possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee
Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic
through Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 30.3N 90.7W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
12H 30/1200Z 31.5N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 31/0000Z 33.0N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/1200Z 34.6N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 01/0000Z 36.1N 85.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 01/1200Z 37.5N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 02/0000Z 38.9N 78.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/0000Z 40.0N 72.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/0000Z 40.7N 67.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi