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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 79 (Nicholas) , Major: 95 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1149 (Michael) Major: 1149 (Michael)
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#1062364 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:06 AM 19.Sep.2021)
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
200 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021

The low-level center of the depression was exposed on visible
satellite imagery this morning but recently a new burst has formed.
Since the morning scatterometer passes missed the depression, the
intensity is held at 30 kt based on consensus T-2.0 values from TAFB
and SAB.

The initial motion estimate is 330/12. The cyclone is forecast to
move in a general northwestward direction throughout the remainder
of the forecast period as the system moves along the southwestern
and western periphery of a subtropical ridge that extends westward
from Africa across the Cabo Verde Islands. No significant changes
were made to the previous NHC forecast track, and the new
prediction lies near the middle of the tightly clustered track
models.

Environmental conditions are conducive for strengthening during the
next day or so, with wind shear forecast to drop off later today.
Thus, the official forecast calls for strengthening during the next
24 hours, and is close to the lower half of the intensity guidance
envelope, near the weaker global models. This forecast could be
conservative, since SSTs will be near 27C and mid-level atmospheric
moisture will be enough to support intensification. By 36-48 hours,
the southwesterly shear will increase, which should end the
opportunity for strengthening, and will likely cause slow weakening.
The models hold onto this system through the 5 day period, but it is
possible that the cyclone could become a remnant low in 4-5 days if
the shear is too much for the system to handle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 13.2N 28.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 14.7N 30.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 16.7N 32.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 18.9N 33.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 21.0N 35.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 22.7N 36.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 24.0N 37.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 26.3N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 28.3N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Blake