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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 79 (Nicholas) , Major: 95 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1149 (Michael) Major: 1149 (Michael)
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#1062408 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 19.Sep.2021)
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
800 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021

Satellite images show that deep convection has increased in
coverage near the low-level center during the last 6 hours, while
the overall structure of the tropical cyclone has also improved.
Based on the improved organization and consensus T-2.5 numbers from
TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is set to 35 kt, making Rose
the seventeenth named storm of the busy 2021 Atlantic hurricane
season. Only 2005 and 2020 have had the seventeenth named storm on
an earlier date.

The 12-hour motion is north-northwest, or 330/14. However, Rose
appears to be moving more in a northwest direction during the past
few hours. This is probably the start of a northwest motion
that should continue through day 4 as the system moves along the
southwestern and western periphery of a subtropical ridge that
extends from Africa across the Cabo Verde Islands. A turn to the
north is predicted in about 5 days, as Rose comes under the
influence of a strong mid-level trough approaching from the
northwest. No significant changes were made to the previous track
forecast.

Environmental conditions are conducive for strengthening during the
next day or so, with low wind shear, SSTs near 27C, and sufficient
mid-level atmospheric moisture. Therefore, a little more
strengthening is shown compared to the previous NHC forecast. The
new NHC forecast is in agreement with the various consensus aids,
but slightly below the SHIPS model, in deference to the global
models which show a weaker cyclone. Westerly wind shear will
likely increase in about 36 hours as a strong upper-level trough
approaches from the northwest. Given that the cyclone is forecast
to remain rather small, it will likely be vulnerable to the higher
shear so weakening is forecast in the 36-72 h time period. Beyond
day 3, a further increase in wind shear is expected to cause Rose to
weaken to a tropical depression. Although not explicitly forecast,
it is possible that the cyclone could become a remnant low in 4-5
days if the shear is too much for the system to handle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 14.3N 29.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 15.9N 31.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 17.9N 33.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 20.0N 34.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 22.0N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 23.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 24.7N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 26.7N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 28.7N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Blake