Current Radar or Satellite Image - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 79 (Nicholas) , Major: 95 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1149 (Michael) Major: 1149 (Michael)
Login to remove ads

Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#1062446 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 PM 19.Sep.2021)

Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021

The center of Rose has been very difficult to locate in infrared
satellite imagery this evening. However, an earlier ASCAT-A overpass
as well as an SSMIS microwave image from around of the time of the
previous advisory were both helpful in establishing the initial
position, motion, and intensity of the tropical cyclone. Rose`s
center is located on the eastern edge of the main convective mass
due to some southeasterly shear. The ASCAT ambiguity data revealed
an area of 30-35 kt winds around the southeastern portion of the
circulation, so the wind speed remains 35 kt for this advisory.
This is also in agreement with subjective Dvorak T-numbers of T2.5
form both SAB and TAFB.

The ASCAT data indicated that Rose is located slightly west of the
earlier estimates, and the initial motion estimate is now
northwestward or 320/14 kt. The cyclone is forecast to move
generally northwestward during the next several days around the
southwestern and western portions of a subtropical ridge located
over the far eastern Atlantic. After day 4, a strong mid- to
upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic should cause
Rose to turn northward. The dynamical models are in reasonably
good agreement through about 60-72 hours, but there is growing
east-to-west (cross-track) spread after that time. The NHC track
forecast is not too different from the previous advisory, and lies
close to the various consensus models in deference to the
increasing model spread late in the period.

Rose has about 24 hours over warm waters and in low vertical wind
shear conditions in which to strengthen, and the new NHC intensity
forecast for that time is unchanged from before. After 24 hours,
increasing westerly shear is likely to result in some gradual
weakening. A further increase in shear is anticipated by day 3 as
Rose approaches the aforementioned trough. This is likely to result
in additional weakening, and Rose is forecast to weaken to a
tropical depression by day 4. Some of the global model guidance
suggests that weakening could occur faster than indicated below, and
it is possible that Rose will degenerate into a remnant low by the
end of the forecast period.


INIT 20/0300Z 15.3N 31.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 16.9N 32.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 18.9N 34.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 20.9N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 22.6N 36.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 23.9N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 25.0N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 27.1N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 29.0N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

Forecaster Brown