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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 79 (Nicholas) , Major: 95 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1149 (Michael) Major: 1149 (Michael)
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#1062551 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 20.Sep.2021)

Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
500 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021

Satellite images show that Rose hasn`t changed much during the past
several hours, with the center on the northern side of the cloud
shield. The last microwave pass from a few hours ago showed that
the mid- and low-level centers of the cyclone remained 60-90 n mi
apart, which is probably a sign that it isn`t strengthening. The
initial wind speed remains 35 kt based on continuity, and hopefully
scatterometer data will be available for the next advisory due to
the recent high bias of the conventional satellite estimates.

The window for strengthening of the tropical cyclone is closing soon
due to increasing shear and likely intrusions of dry mid-level air.
These factors should cause the storm to start a weakening trend
sometime tomorrow. The long-term future of Rose doesn`t look golden
either due to further increasing shear from an incoming upper- level
trough. The new forecast is just a shade lower than the previous
one, near the model consensus, with Rose likely sinking to a
depression in a few days and degenerating to a remnant low by day 5.

The initial motion remains northwestward at about 14 kt. Rose is
is likely to continue moving in that general direction during
the next couple of days around the southwestern and western
periphery of a strong subtropical ridge. Beyond that time,
guidance is coming into good agreement on a mid- to upper-level
trough over the north-central Atlantic causing the cyclone to
recurve to the north, northeast and even east-northeastward by
the weekend. While the models don`t agree on how sharp of a
turn will occur, they are at least consistent that this trough
will take the storm into a hostile environment and decay. The new
forecast is again adjusted well to northeast at long range, and
still might not be far enough to the east.


INIT 20/2100Z 18.4N 34.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 20.0N 35.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 21.8N 36.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 23.3N 37.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 24.5N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 26.0N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 27.3N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 29.2N 38.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 31.5N 34.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Blake