Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 79 (Nicholas) , Major: 95 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1149 (Michael) Major: 1149 (Michael)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 
Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#1062656 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 AM 21.Sep.2021)
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021

The center of Rose remains exposed this morning on satellite
imagery, located about a degree west of a small area of deep
convection, with a smaller low-level swirl rotating around the
larger mean circulation. A pair of recent scatterometer passes
indicated winds of only 30-35 kt, so the initial intensity is
reduced to 35 kt on this advisory.

The storm`s environment is no bed of roses during the next several
days, with persistent moderate westerly or northwesterly shear,
plentiful dry air aloft and only marginally warm waters. Almost
all of the guidance shows Rose decaying into a tropical depression
this evening, and the new forecast is decreased from the previous
one, especially in the near term. A continuation of this hostile
environment should cause further weakening, and Rose is expected to
be pushing up daisies in 3 days or less, degenerating into a weak
remnant low and dissipating by the end of the forecast.

Rose is moving more slowly to the northwest this morning at about 12
kt. The storm should gradually turn northward during the next
couple of days around the southwestern side of a subtropical ridge.
Thereafter, a mid-latitude trough is anticipated to steer Rose
faster to the northeast or east-northeast by the weekend, which
should cause the weak tropical cyclone to open up into a trough
towards the end of the forecast. While there are some speed
differences among the models, the latest guidance suite is similar
to the last forecast, so no significant changes were made to the NHC
track prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 21.6N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 22.8N 37.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 24.1N 38.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 25.4N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 26.9N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 28.3N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 29.4N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1200Z 31.5N 34.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake