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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 84 (Nicholas) , Major: 99 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1153 (Michael) Major: 1153 (Michael)
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#1062736 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 21.Sep.2021)

Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021

Strong northwesterly shear has continued to take a toll on Rose
this evening with the remaining deep convection becoming further
separated from the low-level center. Unfortunately Rose fell
within the gaps of the ASCAT satellite instruments this evening, so
there has been no recent scatterometer data. Dvorak T-numbers from
TAFB and SAB have continued to decline, and these subjective
estimates support lowering Rose`s initial intensity to 30 kt. The
environment ahead of the cyclone is expected to remain quite
hostile with moderate westerly to northwesterly shear and a dry
mid-level atmosphere. Simulated satellite imagery from the global
models suggest Rose will continue to produce bursts of convection
over the eastern portion of its circulation during the next few days
which could allow it remain a tropical cyclone during that time.
Alternatively, the shear and dry air could cause the system to
degenerate into a remnant low much sooner. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and calls for little
overall change in strength during the next couple of days, followed
by degeneration into a remnant low by day 3.

Rose continues to decelerate, now moving northwestward at about
9 kt. The depression should remain on a slow northwestward heading
around the western portion of a subtropical ridge during the next
24 to 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to turn
northward, and then recurve northeastward ahead of a mid- to
upper-level trough over the central Atlantic. The dynamical
guidance envelope remained fairly steady this cycle and no
significant change was made to the previous official forecast.


INIT 22/0300Z 22.9N 37.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 23.9N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 25.0N 40.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 26.3N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 27.6N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 28.9N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 29.7N 37.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0000Z 31.3N 32.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Brown