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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 79 (Nicholas) , Major: 95 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1149 (Michael) Major: 1149 (Michael)
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#1062848 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 22.Sep.2021)

Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

Rose is currently comprised of a swirl of low-level clouds, with
the only significant convection occurring about 120 n mi southeast
of the center. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased, and
are now 25 kt from TAFB and too weak to classify from SAB. Based
mainly on earlier scatterometer data, the initial intensity is held
at a possibly generous 30 kt. Rose remain in an area of
northwesterly shear and upper-level convergence, and dry mid-level
air has been entraining into the circulation. The large-scale model
guidance indicates that the hostile conditions will continue for at
least another 36 h, and based on model forecasts of convection Rose
is now expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in
24 h or less. It should be noted that the GFS and HWRF models
suggest the possibility that convection could re-develop in the
48-96 h period due to the remnant low interacting with an
upper-level trough. For now, the intensity forecast will not call
for re-generation at that time.

The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 300/9 kt. A
northwestward motion is expected for the next 12-24 hours as Rose or
its remnants are steered by a mid-level ridge over the eastern
Atlantic. After that time, the system is expected to turn
northward, northeastward, and eventually east-northeastward as it
becomes steered by a deep-layer trough that includes the remnants
of Odette. Since Rose has moved a bit to the west of the previous
forecast, the guidance and the new forecast track have also shifted
westward during the first 36 h. The new NHC track is to the east of
the consensus models for the first 36 h, and close to the consensus
aids after that time.


INIT 22/2100Z 24.2N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 25.2N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 26.7N 41.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0600Z 28.0N 41.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1800Z 29.0N 39.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/0600Z 29.5N 36.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z 30.1N 34.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1800Z 31.9N 30.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Beven