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| #1062855 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:14 PM 22.Sep.2021) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 Peter continues to just barely maintain its classification as a tropical cyclone. While the low-level circulation has remained intact today, the convection continues to be located well downshear to the east. However, there have been a few convective elements forming a bit closer to the center recently and that is the primarily justification for maintaining advisories on Peter as a tropical cyclone this afternoon. The initial intensity is maintained at 30 kt given the earlier scatterometer data, though this might be generous. Continued strong southwesterly vertical wind shear within a dry mid-level environment should ultimately strip the remaining convection away from Peter, with the tropical cyclone expected to finally peter out as a post-tropical remnant low in the next 12 hours. The depression has been moving very slowly recently, with an estimated north-northwestward motion of 340/4 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northward and then north-northeastward following a weakness in the low-level ridge until the system finally opens up into a trough, sometime in the 48 to 60 hour period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 21.7N 66.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 22.5N 66.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1800Z 23.5N 66.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0600Z 24.4N 66.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 25.6N 65.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin |
