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#1105722 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 04.Sep.2022)
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
1500 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 64.4W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 64.4W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 64.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.4N 65.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.5N 65.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.6N 65.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.7N 65.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.7N 65.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 27.2N 64.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 29.6N 61.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 64.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN