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#1105865 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 05.Sep.2022)
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
1500 UTC MON SEP 05 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 65.3W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 65.3W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 65.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.5N 65.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.7N 65.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.7N 65.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.9N 65.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.0N 65.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 28.3N 64.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 31.3N 62.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 34.4N 59.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 65.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN