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#1105906 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 05.Sep.2022)
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
2100 UTC MON SEP 05 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 65.2W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 15SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 65.2W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 65.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.9N 65.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.8N 65.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.8N 65.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.0N 65.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.6N 65.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 29.2N 64.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 130SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 33.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 37.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 65.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN