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The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts June 1st, 2023.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 142 (Nicole) , Major: 185 (Ian) Florida - Any: 142 (Nicole) Major: 185 (Ian)
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#1109397 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:05 AM 28.Sep.2022)

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Ian completed an eyewall replacement cycle during the overnight
hours, and very recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the hurricane has reached category 4
intensity. The plane reported that the central pressure has fallen
to 942 mb, down about 10 mb from around midnight. The plane
measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 141 kt, and an SFMR
wind of 109 kt. A blend of the 700-mb reduced wind and the SFMR
yields an initial intensity of 120 kt. Although there is some
moderate shear over the hurricane, this is not likely to affect Ian
very much due to its large size. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible before the center reaches the coast later today, but Ian is
expected to reach the coast as an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane. Weakening is expected while Ian moves over the Florida

Ian has jogged a little to the left this morning, but the
longer-term motion remains north-northeastward or 015 degrees
at 9 kt. The hurricane should continue moving north-northeastward
through Thursday between the western side of a subtropical ridge
and a broad trough over the eastern United States. This motion is
expected to bring the center of Ian onshore along the west coast of
Florida later today, and over central Florida tonight and Thursday.
A shortwave trough that is forecast to move southward toward the
northwestern Gulf in about 24 to 36 hours is expected to sharpen
the trough over the eastern U.S. causing Ian to turn northward
along coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia Thursday night and
Friday. The model envelope did not change much this cycle, and very
little cross-track adjustments were needed to the official
forecast. The GFS and ECWMF are noticeably slower than the
remainder of the dynamical models, and the updated NHC track
forecast is a little slower than the previous advisory and slightly
slower than the TVCA consensus aid out of respect for those models.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected along the Florida west
coast and the Lower Florida Keys where a storm surge warning is
in effect, with the highest risk from Naples to the Sarasota region.
Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local
officials and follow any evacuation orders for your area.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning
area in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday
morning with tropical storm conditions expected overnight.
Catastrophic wind damage is expected near the core of Ian when it
moves onshore.

3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast later this week and
this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flooding is
expected across portions of central Florida with considerable
flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida, southeastern Georgia
and coastal South Carolina. Widespread, prolonged major and record
river flooding expected across central Florida.


INIT 28/0900Z 25.6N 82.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 26.7N 82.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 27.7N 81.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1800Z 28.7N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0600Z 29.8N 80.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 30/1800Z 31.6N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 33.6N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/0600Z 36.1N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Brown