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The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts June 1st, 2023.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 84 (Nicole) , Major: 126 (Ian) Florida - Any: 84 (Nicole) Major: 126 (Ian)
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#1109532 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 28.Sep.2022)

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022
500 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022

The depression has not become any better organized this afternoon,
and in fact, the low-level center is now mostly exposed to the west
of the deepest convective activity, which is relatively meager.
Satellite estimates are either unchanged or have even decreased a
little this afternoon, and the latest initial intensity was held at
30 kt for this advisory.

Tropical Depression Eleven has been moving to the north-northwest
this afternoon a bit faster than earlier, estimated at 345/9-kt. A
low- to mid-level ridge located to the east is steering the storm
currently, and this ridge will stay put while the weakness
associated with a large upper-level trough should allow the
depression to turn northward in the subtropical Atlantic basin. The
guidance this cycle is a shade further west early on, but actually
ends up a bit east of the previous track in 48-60 hours. The NHC
track forecast also was nudged a bit west earlier on, and a bit east
by the 60 h, in good agreement with the consensus aids.

The window of favorable upper-level winds is quickly closing, as the
current 5-10 kt of vertical wind shear is expected to increase to
over 20 kt in 24 hours. In addition, the depression is embedded in a
fairly dry mid-level air environment, which is likely playing a role
in the limited convective activity currently. The latest intensity
forecast still gives an opportunity for the depression to become a
short-lived tropical storm during the typical diurnal max in
convection tonight, but now shows earlier weakening, making the
system a remnant low in 60-h and dissipated shortly thereafter. This
intensity forecast is in fairly good agreement with the consensus
aids which have also trended downward form earlier today.


INIT 28/2100Z 16.7N 34.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 18.2N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 20.2N 37.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 22.5N 38.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 25.1N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 28.5N 38.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Papin