|#1115129 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:02 AM 07.Nov.2022)|
Subtropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
800 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE...
...PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS, FLORIDA, AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES THIS WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.58 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the central Bahamas, Florida, and along the
southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress
of Nicole. Additional watches will likely be required later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was
located by NOAA Hurricane Hunters near latitude 25.9 North,
longitude 69.1 West. Nicole is moving toward the north-northwest
near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with a decrease
in forward speed is expected later today. A westward or
west-southwestward motion is forecast Tuesday through early
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach
the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday, move near or over those islands
on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida by Wednesday
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and Nicole could be near or at hurricane intensity by Wednesday or
Wednesday night while it is moving near the northwestern Bahamas.
Winds of 40 mph or greater extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
to the east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure recently measured by the NOAA
Hurricane Hunters is 1002 mb (29.58 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northwestern
Bahamas by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
the northwestern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.
RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches, with local maxima of 6 inches, across the northwestern
Bahamas Tuesday through Thursday.
Heavy rainfall from this system is expected to impact portions of
Florida and the southeastern United States by mid to late week.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.