|#1115451 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:03 AM 09.Nov.2022)|
Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022
Convection has increased in both coverage and organization near the
center of Nicole, with a curved band or partial eyewall now
present near the center. However, this has not yet resulted in any
intensification, with reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicating the maximum winds are near
60 kt and the central pressure near 986 mb.
The aircraft and satellite data, along with radar data from the
Bahamas show that Nicole is now moving westward with an initial
motion of 265/10. This motion should bring the center across the
Abacos and Grand Bahama in the northwestern Bahamas during the next
several hours. Subsequently, a westward to west-northwestward
motion should bring the center to the southeast or east-central
coast of Florida tonight. After landfall in Florida, a low- to
mid-level ridge over the southeastern U.S. is expected to slide
eastward over the Atlantic, with Nicole turning northwestward and
northward across northern Florida or the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico, and then across the southeastern U.S. Finally, a deep-layer
mid-latitude trough approaching from the west should cause Nicole to
accelerate northeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic states. The new
track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and generally
follows the more southerly and westerly GFS/ECMWF solutions.
While Nicole is over warm sea surface temperatures, a combination
of shear of dry air entrainment is likely to allow only gradual
intensification. However, that gradual intensification should
allow Nicole to become a hurricane later today while crossing the
northwestern Bahamas. Weakening is expected once the center moves
over Florida, and even if the center emerges for a time over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico re-intensification is not expected.
The new intensity forecast calls for Nicole to weaken to a
depression over land by 48 h, and then become extratropical by 60 h
as it merges with a frontal system. The global models are in good
agreement that Nicole should dissipate inside the frontal system by
72 h as another low forms to the north.
1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas today, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning this evening or
tonight, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions have begun along the east coast of Florida in the
warning areas and will spread northward to Georgia and South
Carolina later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin along the west coast of Florida within the warning area this
evening or tonight.
3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida, portions of coastal Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend
along the Gulf coast. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves along the Atlantic coast. Residents in the
warning area should listen to advice given by local officials.
4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large
storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center,
outside of the forecast cone. These hazards will affect much of the
Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast United States.
5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall today into Thursday across the
Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across
portions of the Florida Peninsula along with river rises on
the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through
the southern and central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge
Mountains, and extending northward through west central Pennsylvania
into western New York by Friday night.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 26.5N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 26.7N 78.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 27.6N 81.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/0000Z 29.5N 83.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 11/1200Z 32.4N 83.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 12/0000Z 36.8N 79.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP