|#1136933 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 02.Jun.2023)|
Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023
The tropical cyclone has not become better organized this morning,
and it remains in a sheared state. The low-level center of the
system is located to the southwest of a rather ragged-looking area
of deep convection. Despite its unimpressive appearance, earlier
scatterometer data indicated that the cyclone was close to tropical
storm strength. A Dvorak satellite intensity estimate, using a
shear pattern measurement, is unchanged from the previous cycle and
the current intensity estimate is held at 30 kt for this advisory.
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system later this morning.
Center fixes from satellite imagery indicate that the depression
continues to move slowly southward with an initial motion
estimate of 180/4 kt. There is little change to the track forecast
reasoning or numerical guidance from the previous advisory.
During the next day or two, the cyclone is expected to move
southward to southeastward at a slightly faster forward speed on
the western side of a mid-level trough over Florida and east of a
ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico. The latest official track
forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is a blend
of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks.
It appears that the window of opportunity for the cyclone to
strengthen is closing, or has already closed. Vertical shear is
likely to remain strong or become even stronger as the system moves
farther south underneath an upper-tropospheric jet over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This shear, combined with some drier
air to the west of the trough over the extreme eastern Gulf, should
cause a weakening trend to commence by this evening. The official
intensity forecast shows the system degenerating into a remnant low
in 36 hours.
Based on the track and intensity forecast for this system, coastal
watches and warnings are not necessary at this time.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 27.0N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 26.2N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 24.7N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 23.3N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/0600Z 22.5N 84.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW