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| #1149879 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 PM 28.Aug.2023) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 100 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 ...IDALIA STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 85.1W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Englewood northward to the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Middle of Longboat Key northward to the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel * Isle of Youth Cuba * Dry Tortugas Florida * Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key * West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour * Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida * Mouth of the St. Mary`s River to Altamaha Sound Georgia A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key * West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South of the Middle of Longboat Key to Chokoloskee Florida * West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge * Sebastian Inlet Florida northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 85.1 West. Idalia is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Idalia is forecast to pass near or over western Cuba tonight, over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday, and reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane later today and a dangerous major hurricane over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft Tampa Bay...4-7 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft Mouth of the St. Mary`s River to Altamaha Sound, GA...2-4 ft Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of the St. Mary`s River...1-3 ft Florida Keys...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in western Cuba later today. Tropical storm force winds are already reaching portions of the southern coast of Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle of Youth in Cuba through tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in Florida by late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas beginning tonight and within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of the eastern Yucatan: Additional 1 to 2 inches. Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10 inches. Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible, primarily near landfall in northern Florida. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADO: A few tornadoes will be possible starting Tuesday along the west central Florida coast and the tornado threat will spread northward into the Florida Big Bend area by Tuesday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
