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| #143694 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 31.Jul.2007) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032007 500 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION OCCUPYING THE NORTH- EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. AT 0600 UTC...SHIPS C60Y4 AND ZCDM6 REPORTED SUSTAINED 32 KT AND 31 KT WINDS RESPECTIVELY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB WERE 2.0...AND UW-CIMSS AUTOMATED 3-HR AVERAGED INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 30 KT AS WELL. BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD CONSERVATIVELY AT 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 025/18...A LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH 3 OR 4 DAYS. THE MODELS...HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFER AS TO WHETHER THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME ABSORBED IN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST...OR REMAIN ITS OWN ENTITY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST... ALBEIT A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE...KEEPS THE SYSTEM SEPARATE THROUGH 5 DAYS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS STILL OVER 26-27C WATERS...AND A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY REMAINS FOR IT TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. FSU PHASE-SPACE DIAGRAMS DERIVED FROM GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST FULL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SHIPS GUIDANCE HAS THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTHENING TO A POWERFUL 60 KT STORM IN 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST DOES INDICATE STRENGTHENING BUT IS LESS BULLISH THAN SHIPS AND A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0900Z 37.8N 64.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 31/1800Z 40.4N 62.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 01/0600Z 44.5N 57.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 01/1800Z 49.2N 47.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 02/0600Z 55.0N 37.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/0600Z 59.0N 28.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/0600Z 61.0N 21.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 05/0600Z 63.0N 13.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI |
