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Storm #Arlene still firing convection near the center today while spinning fish
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#210481 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:14 PM 25.Aug.2008)
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1800 UTC MON AUG 25 2008

AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
A HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CHANGED
TO A HURRICANE WATCH FOR HAITI FROM NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 70.5W AT 25/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 70.5W AT 25/1800Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 69.6W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.5N 71.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.6N 72.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.8N 73.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.7N 74.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 22.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 70.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH