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Storm #Arlene still firing convection near the center today while spinning fish
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#211430 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 29.Aug.2008)
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2008

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR WESTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL CUBA...FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 78.8W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 78.8W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 78.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.3N 80.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.8N 81.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.6N 83.8W...OVER WESTERN CUBA
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.3N 85.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.5N 89.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 29.5N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 31.0N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 78.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB