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| #212489 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 PM 01.Sep.2008) TCDAT3 HURRICANE HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008 500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008 THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983 MB AND A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 89 KT. THESE NUMBERS INDICATE HANNA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE FACE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT SINCE GLOBAL MODES SHOW THE SHEAR REMAINING STRONG OR POSSIBLY INCREASING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN HANNA'S TENACITY THUS FAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT HANNA WILL BE ABLE TO FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR. AT DAY 5...HANNA IS FORECAST TO BE INLAND SO WEAKENING IS SHOWN. THE LAST FEW FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HANNA HAS BEEN MEANDERING. HOWEVER...A 12-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION IS SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HANNA NOW DISSIPATED...THE CYCLONE'S MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC. AFTER THAT...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE HANNA TO TURN NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS WITH POTENTIAL AREAS OF IMPACT RANGING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. UNTIL HANNA TAKES A MORE DEFINITIVE MOTION...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BE MORE SPECIFIC ABOUT THE POTENTIAL THREAT AREA. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 22.2N 72.6W 70 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 21.9N 72.9W 75 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 21.8N 73.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 22.1N 73.9W 75 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 23.1N 74.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 27.0N 78.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 31.5N 81.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 06/1800Z 39.0N 80.5W 25 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA |
