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| #213360 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:52 PM 03.Sep.2008) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IKE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 800 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY OF IKE. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE THAT IS SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. SPECIAL CLASSIFICATION PERFORMED BY TAFB AND SAB BOTH YIELD T-NUMBERS OF 5.5. IN FACT...THE DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND RAW ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN ABOUT 6.0-6.5 DURING THE LAST 2-3 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE INCREASED TO 100 KT...MAKING IKE A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BUT AS WITH ALL INTENSE HURRICANES...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST...AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE WIND RADII. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0000Z 21.7N 53.2W 100 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 22.6N 55.1W 110 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 23.8N 57.9W 115 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 24.3N 60.4W 115 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 23.8N 63.1W 110 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 22.5N 68.0W 110 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 22.5N 72.0W 115 KT 120HR VT 08/1800Z 23.5N 76.0W 115 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
